Semifinal Two: Predictions, Hopes, and Fears

Ok, it looks like I’m on a bit of a hot streak, correctly predicting nine of the ten fortunate qualifiers from Tuesday’s First Semifinal.  (Bittersweetly, two personal favorites of mine swapped places, with Albania qualifying while Israel unfortunately missed out.)  That run of luck might end tonight, though, as I’m finding this Second Semifinal an absolute pain to predict!  Will regional voting blocs and running order politics trump the general strength of songs?  Will appearances, gimmicks, and tricks take precedence over voices and composition?  It’s going to be an interesting night…

In order of tonight’s appearance, my expected qualifiers are:

  • Serbia
  • (FYR) Macedonia
  • Malta
  • Ukraine
  • Slovenia
  • Sweden
  • Turkey
  • Estonia
  • Slovakia
  • Norway

My personal Top Ten are as follows (again, in running order):

  • Serbia
  • (FYR) Macedonia
  • Malta
  • Belarus
  • Ukraine
  • Sweden
  • Turkey
  • Estonia
  • Slovakia
  • Norway

Honestly, most of the songs that I’ve skipped in these lists aren’t bad, per se, but many simply lack the oomph that a Eurovision entry needs.  (Or, in the case of Bulgaria, it has plenty of oomph, but it’s just…rough…).  Either way, it’s going to be a bit of a bloodbath tonight, and shocks are sure to follow…stay tuned, and let me know what your predictions are!

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Posted on May 24, '12, in 2012, Special Comment. Bookmark the permalink. 5 Comments.

  1. Hi again 🙂 I got 8 out fo 10 for the last one, so here’s how I think tonight will go:

    Serbia
    FYR Macedonia ❤ (will vote for her!!)
    Netherlands
    Belarus
    Ukraine
    Slovenia
    Sweden
    Turkey
    Estonia
    Norway

    My personal top 10…
    FYR Macedonia
    Bulgaria (I dont care what anyone says, I still love it. Even though her performace is crap!)
    Ukraine
    Sweden
    Turkey
    Malta
    Serbia
    Croatia
    Bosnia & Herzegovina
    Portugal

    I dont get the fuss over Norway – I think its a REAAAAAALLLY weak song, the lyrics are even more contrived than Malta or Latvia. But its a certain qualifier.

    And I'll be happy just so long as Georgia doesnt go through. That "song" just needs to die. Painfully.

  2. Yeah, I was amazed how right you were on your last predictions. Here are mine for the second semi:

    1. Serbia
    2. Netherlands
    3. Belarus
    4. Ukraine
    5. Sweden
    6. Turkey
    7. Norway
    8. Slovenia
    9. Slovakia
    10. Georgia

    This is what I want:
    1. Serbia
    2. Macedonia
    3. Netherlands
    4. Portugal
    5. Ukraine
    6. Sweden
    7. Turkey
    8. Estonia
    9. Norway
    10. Slovenia

    Then again! I’m terrible at predicting, so we’ll just have to see. lol

  3. Malta? Really? Is the performance so good?

    Those last five will certainly be helped by the running order. But did you forget about Bosnia and Herzegovina? Maybe you are in a better position to judge by being there in person, and I do have concerns about the dress, but by merit of the song and of fellow Balkan support, should she not pass?

    In light of our exit, I am not that eager to see Slovenia in the Final, as sweet as the girl seems. Our song was perfectly straight-forward, whereas Slovenia’s is overly complex. Such an easy comparison to draw, you see; one I probably have drawn even if we did not miss the Final.

  4. OK, well, it turns out I am NOT getting the hang of this. Making my prediction while voting was underway, I had Portugal, Slovenia and Georgia instead of Turkey, Estonia and Lithuania.

    Don’t hate. Georgia’s performance was totally stupid, but they did a great job and I enjoyed it immensely.

    Very sad for Joan (poor thing could barely talk in the green room), rather miffed about Portugal (I take it she didn’t perform as well in the jury semifinal?), and extremely indignant about Turkey, who I thought were just awful.

  5. OK, so you were right about Malta.

    I would venture to guess Estonia was number one with the juries, given the successes of Sasenko, Keuc, Nizharadze, and Dice. It just seems to fit a mold there. In any case, he will have hard time doing worse than last year’s Estonian entrant.

    I would also not hold it past the juries to score Finland lower than the televote did. Historically, I realized recently, televote has generally been more friendly to us than juries, no? We could never win in the first fifty years of the contest (when juries ruled the contest), but our victory came thanks to the 100% televote. When juries come on the scene again, they pin us down in Oslo when we would have sailed comfortably through otherwise (and replace us with some relatively empty entries). Last year, televote still scored us higher, even if juries were not quite out to harm us then. I am also concerned that juries seem to favour songs in English, which seems like a strange preference for them, given that we were required to sing in our own languages for not quite all but almost all of the first 43 years, during which United Kingdom had its hayday…

    … so yeah, you can see I have been pondering.

    Moving on: again with the obvious “last golden ticket”? At least the recipient was not so offensive this time (even if the performance failed to quite grab me; good song, though).

    Lithuania? He is so coming last in the Final. Cute for a summer camp talent show, but not for Eurovision.

    I think Croatia had a great song and great singer that is bad for competition; it seems to succumb to the pressure of the need to judge.

    8th year in a row for a Netherlands-free Final. DAY-YUM! How unlucky can they be?

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