Running Order Drawn

Today in Baku, the highlight of the Head of Delegations meeting took place: the official draw for the 2012 Eurovision Running Order.  Even though the nations had been divided into their Semifinals back in January, today brought some more clarity to what we’ll see in May, as well as triggering the usual flood of punditry about who benefits from performing when.  Let’s take a look at how things turned out today:

Semifinal One: May 22

  1. Montenegro: Rambo Amadeus – “Euro Neuro”
  2. Iceland: Gréta Salóme & Jónsi – “Never Forget”
  3. Greece: Eleftheria Eleftheriou – “Aphrodisiac”
  4. Latvia: Anmary – “Beautiful Song”
  5. Albania: Rona Nishliu – “Suus”
  6. Romania: Mandinga – “Zaleilah”
  7. Switzerland: Sinplus – “Unbreakable”
  8. Belgium: Iris – “Would You?”
  9. Finland (Wild card): Pernilla Karlsson – “När jag blundar”
  10. Israel: Izabo – “Time”
  11. San Marino: TBA
  12. Cyprus: Ivi Adamou – “La La Love”
  13. Denmark: Soluna Samay – “Should’ve Known Better”
  14. Russia: Buranovskiye Babushki – “Party for Everybody”
  15. Hungary: Compact Disco – “Sound of Our Hearts”
  16. Austria: Trackshittaz – “Woki mit deim Popo”
  17. Moldova: Pasha Parfeny – “Lăutar”
  18. Ireland (Wild card): Jedward – “Waterline”

Semifinal Two: May 24

  1. Serbia: Željko Joksimović – “Nije ljubav stvar”
  2. (FYR) Macedonia: Kaliopi – “Crno i belo”
  3. Netherlands: Joan Franka – “You and Me”
  4. Malta: Kurt Calleja – “This is the Night”
  5. Belarus: Litesound – “We are the Heroes”
  6. Portugal: Filipa Sousa – “Vida Minha”
  7. Ukraine (Wild card): Gaitana – “Be My Guest”
  8. Bulgaria: Sofi Marinova – “Love Unlimited”
  9. Slovenia: Eva Boto – “Verjamem”
  10. Croatia: Nina Badrić – Nebo”
  11. Sweden: Loreen – “Euphoria”
  12. Georgia: Anri Jokhadze – “I’m a Joker”
  13. Turkey: Can Bonomo – “Love Me Back”
  14. Estonia: Ott Lepland – “Kuula”
  15. Slovakia: Max Jason Mai – “Don’t Close Your Eyes”
  16. Norway: Tooji – “Stay”
  17. Bosnia & Herzegovina: Maya Sar – “Korake ti znam”
  18. Lithuania (Wild card): Donny Montell – “Love is Blind”

Even though we don’t know who exactly we’ll see in the Final on May 26, we do know the running order of the Big Five and hosts Azerbaijan for that night.

  • 1. United Kingdom: Engelburt Humperdinck – “Love Will Set You Free”
  • 9. France: Anggun – “Echo (You and I)”
  • 10. Italy: Nina Zilli – “L’amore è femmina”
  • 13. Azerbaijan: Sabina Babayeva – “When the Music Dies”
  • 19. Spain: Pastora Soler – “Quédate Conmigo”
  • 20. Germany: Roman Lob – “Standing Still”

As a fan and a pundit, a few things jumped out at me once I noticed the running order:

  • For the third time in three participations, Montenegro will be opening up the First Semifinal.  This didn’t turn into success for their entries for 2008 or 2009, as both failed to move on to the Final…will Rambo Amadeus change that?
  • For the second year in a row, Jedward will be closing their Semifinal.
  • With the possible exception of Finland following Belgium in Semifinal One, and Slovenia and Croatia in Semifinal Two, the ballads tend to be separated from one another.  This might even the playing field a bit.
  • Despite the general critical acclaim of Engelbert Humperdinck’s entry for the United Kingdom, no song running in the opening spot has won since 1984’s “Diggi-Loo Diggi-Ley“.  Only nineteen songs took part that year, as opposed to twenty-six in this year’s Final, so The Hump’s got even more competition.

What stands out to you?  Join the conversation!

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Posted on March 20, '12, in 2012. Bookmark the permalink. 5 Comments.

  1. It is difficult to say anything about the big 5’s placing in the final, except as to the UK in the very first position… I guess Spain and Germany are in good position, but there are still 6 songs afterwards. Italy and France are in a rather uneasy placing too and might get drown among the other songs around, though Italy has quite an easy to notice music style different from anything else this year. But what I say only concerns televoting, the most predictible voting behaviour: we know nothing about the juries who might raise their chances up.

    Samantha, I don’t understand why you are comparing in your article 1984 and 2012 whereas the process of deciding the winner is fairly different.
    Would only the juries vote in 2012, I would agree on a possible comparison, but televoting has more weight in the results ! We can only compare the years that share the same voting system, so nowadays 2010, 2011 and 2012, if I am not mislead. As televoting is still stronger than jury voting, maybe we can compare with some limits from 1999 to d012, but I am not so sure about this either.

  2. Samantha Ross

    Babar, I really only brought up the 1984 statistic in order to give a nod to the percentages. If running order were no issue, and songs were completely equal in every way, the 1984 song had a 1 in 19 chance of winning, while a song competing in this year’s Final has a 1 in 26 chance.

  3. Well… this honestly hasn’t done much to change my thoughts on the cahnces of some songs.

    There are a few draws where I just think “damn, why that one there!?” *cough – Italy, Lithuania, Moldova, France, Germany, Macedonia – cough* Apart from that… Greece;’s draw is alarmingly similar to Emmy last year, and Montenegro… wel some things never change, eh?

    I can’t put into words how scared I am of Georgia actually qualifying, but ebing drawn between Sweden and Turkey has reduced that somewhat 😛

  4. Hey Samantha, are you going to make a top 42 again? (Or the category list, rather.) Hope you do!

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